I started to wait until the Iowa Caucus was over to write this, but when I considered the history of its winners I decided it wasn't worth it. I also didn't want the deadline pressure, but that's another topic. Anyway, the fact is that the winner in Iowa has only a 50-50 chance of being the party nominee, much less President. Since 1976, the Republicans have had seven caucuses there, with only three winners going on to be the nominee. For the Democrats, it's been nine caucuses since 1972 with only five of the winners getting the nomination.
Nobody even paid attention to Iowa until Jimmy Carter went there in 1976. That's something else we can blame on him. In fact, Carter didn't win in Iowa that year. He came in second. Undecided came in first. Even so, that second place finish was enough to propel him to the Presidency, and we all remember how well that turned out.
Since 1976, there have been some notable losers in Iowa, including Ronald Reagan in 1980, Bill Clinton in 1992, and George W. Bush in 2000. All three went on to become President. Reagan and Clinton won the election, and Bush was appointed by the Supreme Court.
The reason a win in Iowa doesn't lead to either the nomination or the White House is because the state doesn't really represent most of the country. It is mostly white, evangelical, and rural. You can also say that about New Hampshire, which votes next. The first contest that will really be a reflection of how the country feels will be the South Carolina Primary.
The next few months are going to be a lot of fun for political junkies like me and a pain for everyone else. Unfortunately, the way things are in Washington now, don't expect that much will get done once Obama leaves office. As long as the Tea Party Crazies are still in Congress, we're all losers in the long run. These idiots refuse to compromise and have enough votes to block anything they don't like. The only person running for President that they might get along with is Ted Cruz, and nobody else, Republican or Democrat, can stand the guy.
The only way this country is going to change is if the voters who elected the Tea Party Crazies get fed up, and vote them out. That's not likely to happen this year because most of the Tea Party Crazies are Republicans, and their party is on the verge of making either Donald Trump or the above mentioned Cruz their nominee for President.
The Democrats don't have any room to crow about the Republicans' dilemma. Bernie Sanders might win in Iowa, and will probably win in New Hampshire. Democrats in those states are willing to vote for him even though they must know that no one that calls himself a socialist has a chance to be elected President. Besides, if he did manage to win by some miracle, the CIA would knock him off.
So let's just sit back and enjoy the show. After all, politics today is just another form of entertainment, and actual governing is impossible. Sadly, we have only ourselves to blame.